Bonus True-Value Calculator
Enter an offer’s stated terms and an assumed game RTP to estimate what the bonus is theoretically worth once the cost of clearing the wagering is counted. A long-run statistical model of your own assumptions — not a prediction, and never a promise of profit. 18+ only.
Amounts are shown in dollarsfor reading — the arithmetic is the same. This is not an operator’s settlement currency.
Enter the offer’s numbers and press Estimate bonus value. The worked example below shows the same math by hand.
How this is calculated
The model is arithmetic on the numbers you enter — nothing is fetched from any casino, and worked figures are hypothetical examples, not offers.
- Bonus amount = deposit × match percentage, limited by the maximum bonus if the offer states one.
- Total starting balance = deposit + bonus.
- Gross wagering requirement = the qualifying base (bonus only, or deposit + bonus) × the wagering multiple.
- Effective turnover = gross requirement ÷ contribution rate — the total you must actually stake.
- Expected cost = effective turnover × house edge, where house edge = 100% − RTP. This is the long-run average cost of placing that much turnover.
- Estimated theoretical value = bonus − expected cost. Positive means the bonus exceeds the average cost of clearing it under your assumptions; negative means clearing it is expected to cost more than the bonus provides.
The playthrough arithmetic is the same as in our wagering requirement calculator; this tool adds the RTP-based cost estimate on top. The full sourcing contract is on the methodology page.
Worked example (hypothetical)
A $100 deposit with a 100% match (no cap) earns a $100 bonus. The offer requires 35x on the bonus only, you play a 96% RTP game at 100% contribution:
- Gross wagering: $100 × 35 = $3,500
- Effective turnover: $3,500 ÷ 1.00 = $3,500
- House edge: 100% − 96% = 4%
- Expected cost: $3,500 × 4% = $140
- Estimated theoretical value: $100 − $140 = −$40
Under these assumptions, clearing the wagering is expected to cost $40 more than the bonus is worth — on average, over enormous play volume. Any single session can end far above or far below that number; that spread, not the average, is what a player actually experiences. Figures use dollars as a reading currency; switch the calculator to euros if that matches the offer you are checking.
Assumptions and limitations
- The RTP and contribution rate you enter are assumed to hold uniformly across all your play. Mixing games with different figures changes the estimate.
- Expected cost is a law-of-large-numbers average. Short sessions are governed by variance, which this model does not attempt to describe.
- Maximum cashout rules, sticky-bonus terms, game restrictions, and payment-method exclusions are outside the model and can only reduce the estimate. The max-bet and expiry figures are feasibility arithmetic, not compliance checks.
- Results model the terms you typed — not any casino’s actual offer, and never a prediction of wins or losses. This is education, not gambling, legal, tax, or financial advice.
Play within limits
A negative estimate is the normal case: bonuses are marketing, and their terms usually price them accordingly. Do not treat a positive estimate as an invitation to play bigger — the long-run average is not your session. Decide your money and time limits before you play, and never stake money needed for essentials. If gambling is causing harm, use the independent help resources on our responsible gambling page. 18+ only.
Frequently asked questions
What does 'theoretical value' mean?
It is the long-run statistical average: the bonus amount minus the expected cost of placing all the stakes the wagering requirement demands, assuming the RTP you entered holds. It describes an average over enormous play volume, not what any single session will do.
Why is the estimated value often negative?
Wagering requirements force a large total of stakes, and each stake carries the game's house edge (100% minus RTP). With a typical 35x requirement on the bonus at 96% RTP, the expected cost of that turnover is 140% of the bonus — more than the bonus itself.
Does a positive estimate mean I will make money?
No. Even when the long-run estimate is positive, a single session is dominated by variance, and real offers include terms this model ignores — maximum cashouts, game restrictions, sticky-bonus rules. The estimate is a way to compare offers, not a promise of profit.
Where do I find a game's RTP?
In the game's own information sheet, paytable, or help screen. Published RTP can differ between versions of the same game, so check the exact game you would actually play rather than a generic figure.
What does this model ignore?
Maximum cashout limits, sticky (non-withdrawable) bonuses, game and payment-method restrictions, bet-size effects on variance, RTP differences across the games you might mix, and the time the turnover takes. All of these can only reduce or complicate the estimate.
No affiliate links: this page has no paid operator placements or commission links. A sister-brand handoff to AskCasinoAI, when it appears, is a network link — not an affiliate offer. Read the full affiliate disclosure.
New to wagering requirements? Start with the companion guide: what wagering requirements actually mean. To explore the RTP side of the math on its own, try the RTP and house-edge calculator.